Monte Carlo Simulation

ALTERNATE HISTORIES – John Jonelis – White Paper (pdf)

ALTERNATE HISTORIES – John Jonelis – Journal of the MTA (pdf)

The Back Story

Mr. X offers a seductive and pricey stock trading system and a poor dupe buys it.  What if it were you?  That may sound funny (and it is) but the real question before us is the way in which we view and understand data.  We all use data in one way or another. But how predictive is it? How can we find out?

As it turns out there’s an easy way. It’s called a Monte Carlo simulation and it’s been hidden in the obscurity of academia for too long. Now anybody can measure the nature of a data set, be it trading results, survey results, demographic data, or what have you. With modern software, the analysis is visual and intuitive. And the software can be free.


ALTERNATE HISTORIES is a white paper published as the lead article in the Journal of Technical Analysis – Issue 63, Market Technicians Association. Here are some reviews from people you might find familiar:

“Wow! I just picked up the 2005 issue of the Journal of Technical Analysis and the first article by John Jonelis has the right stuff. It describes a visual approach to statistical analysis of trading systems that any numerically-phobic technician ought to find comfortable/intuitive. Stats don’t have to be a gauntlet, the basic ideas are common sense, an idea that Mr. Jonelis demos nicely. Kudos to our great editor Charlie Kirkpatrick and his reviewers.”
John Bollinger, CFA, CMT

“ Not having that much education about the topic, I was able to follow what you were saying. It was very clearly and logically written, easy to follow. I particularly enjoyed the not so hypothetical examples you set up, which made it much more real” Gregory Leifel, Chairman BAAC and author of “The Day I Met Walt Whitman” ISBN 0-9679997-0-7

“Your article was of the caliber that the MTA would like to see published in the Journal of Technical Analysis.” Charles Kirkpatrick, Editor


Read it on PDF

ALTERNATE HISTORIES – John Jonelis – White Paper (pdf)

ALTERNATE HISTORIES – John Jonelis – Journal of the MTA (pdf)


Comment on this article — Name and email optional

Find Chicago Venture Magazine at Comments and re-posts are welcomed and encouraged. This is not investment advice – do your own due diligence. I cannot guarantee accuracy but I give you my best.

Copyright © 2012 John Jonelis – All Rights Reserved


Filed under Chicago Venture Magazine, CORE Insight Story, White Papers

14 responses to “ALTERNATE HISTORIES

  1. Janet Case

    That’s just brilliant. I downloaded the software and started using it the same day. Why didn’t anybody show how to do this before?

  2. Jim Kren

    So few teach the practical truth. But when John Bollinger took the time to say what he said about this paper, I sat up and listened. This revolutionizes the way I will go about comparing data and it’s so incredibly easy!

  3. Bill Blaire

    Never heard of this before. I will use it in my trading from now on.

  4. Alexander Harbinger PhD

    I will teach this to my statistics class along with linear regression.

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