Category Archives: Entrepreneurship and Politics

THE TRUMP EFFECT

WHAT THE NEW ADMINISTRATION MIGHT MEAN FOR HEALTH CARE

By Erik Clausen

Several months have passed since the U.S. Presidential election, and…we’re still here, folks. After years of political rhetoric and theatrics, and a few months of uncertainty, we are starting to gain some clarity around exactly what the new administration and its policies might mean for the life science industry and, by extension, marketers within it.

Most importantly and as a wise man wrote before the election, “There is no need for panic.”

the scream EdvardMunch

Edvard Munch – The Scream

Now that the rhetoric has momentarily quieted, we need to balance Trump’s desire to make dramatic policy changes with the realities of the legislative process and with the expectations of a public that benefits from life science and healthcare innovation. Widespread policy changes take time to implement and often require strong Congressional support, even with a Republican-controlled House and Senate. The recent defeat of the health care bill is a case in point.

In other words, as we look at the major policy changes that are likely to affect life science marketing in the years ahead, we need to recognize that there will be time to adjust marketing strategies and tactics accordingly. This may even mean building multiple marketing plans to address different contingencies.

fear MS Office

 

Possible repatriation of US dollars

U.S. pharmaceutical companies have substantial funds tied up in accounts overseas due to punitive tax laws. The administration has proposed, as part of his economic stimulus plan, to dramatically reduce this tax rate and encourage those dollars to come back to the U.S.

In theory, by lowering the tax burden on these businesses, the economy will see an uptick as businesses are encouraged to invest. These companies benefitting from tax relief would in turn reinvest those dollars domestically in the form of new deals, R&D, acquisition and job creation.

Since pharmaceutical and instrumentation companies typically grow based on acquisition, we could see a resurgence in life science M&A and dramatic increases in the value of emerging biotech, diagnostic and tools companies. No doubt, these topics are top of mind at industry gatherings like the January 2017 J.P. Morgan Healthcare conference.

dollars MS Office

If this move does have the immediate and positive effect on the life science sector as promised, it would give corporate brand managers and marketers much to do to position their companies correctly to take full advantage of the M&A environment.

Of course, this assumes that the financial boon to corporations is reinvested or used for acquisition and not simply distributed to shareholders. Increased deal-flow will lead to increased budgets. This will undoubtedly bring increased noise in a busy economy. Therefore, we should focus on building long-term brand equity in an expanding GDP and economy.

 

Corporate tax rate reduction

The administration will also propose in the President’s Budget Bill, a much lower corporate tax rate. This plan would significantly reduce the cost of capital and reduce the marginal tax rate on labor.

By most analyses, these incentives could increase the U.S. economy’s size in the long run, boost wages, and result in more full-time equivalent jobs—including in the life science sector. The question remains, what the estimated reduction in federal revenue will mean for federal funding of medical and scientific research. Such grants often precipitate early discovery that soon become commercialized.

 

tax tax tax MS Office

The size of the proposed tax breaks for corporations are, simply put, Huge.” But if the administration can actually get it through Congress, it has the potential to give corporations exponential buying power, increase cash flow, build up inventory, and re-invest in technology. Dismissing any possibility of a bubble and or the rich simply getting richer, these tax breaks should create jobs and boost all sectors of the economy, including life science and healthcare.

 

Reforming the FDA

In his 100-day plan, Trump specifically cited, “…cutting the red tape at the FDA…” as among his highest priorities. In the plan, he stated that, “…there are over 4,000 drugs awaiting approval, and we especially want to speed the approval of life-saving medications.” We can only assume that such reforms would also have a direct effect on approval and clearances for new medical devices and diagnostic tests, as well.

An accelerated approval process at the FDA could potentially have a positive effect—at least in the short-term—on the life science sector. With therapeutic candidates and devices moving more rapidly through review than anticipated, biotech, pharmaceutical and device companies in mid to late stage clinical phases could see increased valuations of companies with early approvals.

fda MS Office

Additionally, this could encourage earlier stage companies to get more ambitious about moving candidates to the clinic and could make would-be acquirers more bullish.

In the long term, if that accelerated review brings products to market too quickly, it could threaten public health, cause another costly set of reforms, and damage the brands of those companies.

 

What does the new agenda mean for marketers?

While it will take some time to feel the effects on any proposed legislation or policy changes, the administration will tie everything back to growing the economy: no small challenge. A lot has to come together with or without a cooperative Congress. The President will have to build a consensus.

marketing MS Office

For now, as marketers we need to do what we’ve always done—assess market opportunities, pinpoint our target audiences, develop smart strategies to reach and influence their behavior, and measure outcomes. Certainly, researching the impact of policy decisions is part of that research, but acting too quickly on proposed policy changes only fuels uncertainty.

And, if there is one truth in the market, it doesn’t like uncertainty.

screaming robot MS Office

In the end, even if the President is able to pass a fraction of what he’s proposing, it should lead to economic prosperity and marketing opportunity in our industry.

Now, if we could just turn off his Twitter account, we might make social media great again, as well.

 

chempetitive group logo

About the Author

Erik Clausen is part of the Chempetitive Group, a Chicago based marketing initiative for pharmaceutical, chemical, biotechnology, diagnostics, and medical devices.

This article was previously posted online

Graphics: THE SCREAM courtesy www.EdvardMunch.org

All other graphics from MS Office.

 

Chicago Venture Magazine is a publication of Nathaniel Press www.ChicagoVentureMagazine.com Comments and re-posts in full or in part are welcomed and encouraged if accompanied by attribution and a web link. This is not investment advice. We do not guarantee accuracy. Please perform your own due diligence. It’s not our fault if you lose money.
.Copyright © 2017 John Jonelis – All Rights Reserved
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TRUMPED

donald-trump-tby John Jonelis

Political outsider elected president! Nationwide shock! Emotions run wild! Markets in turmoil! Worst riots since Orson Wells’ WAR OF THE WORLDS broadcast!

Loop Lonagan watches the mayhem on television. People on the streets shout lewd obscenities—carry hate signs—crawl over cars—destroy businesses—throw bricks at police. “Da theater o’ dee absurd,” Lonagan mutters, “Did deeze folks even vote?”

He continues his impromptu soliloquy. “Why don’t deeze malcontents all move t’ Greece?” Ah, Greece—where socialism is in full bloom and the weather is gorgeous. “Maybe President Elect Trump will offer free one-way luxury cruises to da Mediterranean and make da Greeks pay for it.” Lonagan figures that will make everybody happy.  But then he reflects that Greece is bankrupt. Socialism didn’t work there.

riots-washington-times

European-style Riots in Chicago – [The Washington Times]

The riots disturb Lonagan because he now sees a political party that generates looters. His own! “Hmmf!”  It shames him. He’s embarrassed for the European decadence of his people. This is not our way. Americans don’t throw temper tantrums after elections. We vote. We accept what happens. We come together. These are principles Lonagan grew up believing.

He pats his bull terrier, Clamps. The dog lets out a long satisfied sigh while Lonagan takes a stiff slug of scotch. “You never worry ‘bout dis kinda stuff, do you Clamps old buddy?” In this election, with a choice between the crass and the criminal, Lonagan never expected a good outcome. In his view, which he loudly stated to everyone that would listen, “Anybody with half a brain knows we’s gonna get one o’ two things—Cleopatra II or Nebuchadnezzar III. I dunno which is worse. So why all da fuss?”

trump-obama

Improbable White House Briefing – [Associated Press]

As a practical man, Lonagan figures the real game is to do well no matter who is in office. On the night of the election—during all the hyper uncertainty—when index futures were tanking big time—Lonagan capitalized on the unexpected.  He went Long all he could during the after-hours session on slim capital and crazy margin, using all the leverage he could muster. Now, during the riots, he’s cashing out of those positions to the tune of millions. But what if—

A small tug at his sleeve and he suddenly remembers his duties as a babysitter. He shuts off the TV and takes Jim Kren’s little girl into his arms.

“G’night Uncle Loop”, she says, wrapping her arms around his neck, “I love you,”

“I—uh,” he squeezes out the difficult words, “I love you too, Angelica.  Lemme tuck you in.”

And when he sets her on her feet, she bursts out, “And tell me a bedtime story!”

“I dunno, Princess. Last time yer papa grilled me fer an hour—”

“But I want to hear what happens to the Dragon Lady and the Big Bad Duck.”

He stares at her good and hard. Precocious little tike. “No, babe, it don’t seem right to—”

“Please, Uncle Loop. PLEEEEEZE!”

Lonagan wipes a hand across his jaw. It’s nine o’clock. Mama and papa are out. He’s supposed to use his judgement in emergencies like this. “Okay, Princess.” He can hardly believe what he hears himself saying. “We’ll do anudder chapter o’ da Dragon Lady ‘n’ da Big Bad Duck.”

Angelica claps her hands and jumps in place, her long curls bouncing on her shoulders. “Thank you, Uncle Loop!”

“Go brush yer teeth er somethin.’ I’ll be right up.”

She calls out, “Clamps!” The enormous bull terrier bounds up the stairs after her.

57661370ca0ff_image

Crazy Political Campaign – [Associated Press]

Lonagan goes over the images of this absurd campaign and pours himself three more fat fingers of scotch. He’s playing with dynamite and curses his lousy imagination—using hardcore news to create a bedtime story—stupid, just stupid. Chicago-style political intrigue on the national stage is a tough lesson for anybody. It’s the wrong material for a youngster. Maybe it’s child abuse. He wishes he never told her that story, but he did and now she wants the rest of it.

He pours more scotch. Maybe, just possibly—if he sticks to the script and keeps the whole thing in a child’s world—it might all turn out fine. All the Lonagans love happy endings. Plunking down his empty whiskey glass, he checks his watch. Five minutes. Showtime. And keep it clean!

Upstairs, Angelica is curled up with Clamps, rubbing the dog’s ears. The animal squeezes its eyes closed in ecstasy and rumbles a soft, deep rhythmic growl. He’s the only dog Lonagan knows that can purr.

clamps

Clamps is at Peace – [John Jonelis]

After pulling the covers over those two, he settles his rump on the foot of the bed. “Okay Princess, lemme catch up on da story. Best I can remember, yer at school, it’s recess, ‘n’ yer gonna play soccer. It’s da Jackasses—I mean da Donkeys vs. da Elephants. You’se is picked fer da Elephant team, right?”

She nods.

“Da best player is da Dragon Lady ‘n’ da whole Donkey team treats her like some kinda queen. I mean she’s got skill. She’s got clout. She’s got her team all hand-picked and organized. She’s got—whadayacallit—a ground game. And she cheats—oh yeah, she cheats—big time. That’s called politics. That’s Civics lesson 101. Am I givin’ ya da straight goods?”

“Yes, Uncle Loop.”

“Okay then. So we already know her plan with da Duck.  He’s s’posed t’ start a big fight. Then he’s s’posed t’ take his regulation soccer ball ‘n’ summa da best players on yer team with ‘im. Then they’s s’posed t’ go off t’ play with some udder kids. So yer team loses.  That’s called splittin’ da ticket. That’s Civics 201. I think dat’s da way I told it last time.”

Angelica blurts, “I know, I know! That Dragon and Duck! They planned this whole mess together! And now my team doesn’t stand a chance!”

Lonagan grins. “Okay, so ya got basic conspiracy theory all figured out now. Yer learnin’ fast. That’s Civics 301. But da Dragon’s smart and mean, see? Maybe cunning’s a better word. There’s deeper waters goin’ on here. Way deeper. Now she rolls out her REAL plan.”

The girl knits her brows while scratching the thick short fur on Clamp’s neck. “I don’t understand.”

“Sure ya do, kid. Da Duck’s a big bully and he’s got dis huge ego, see? C’mon, you know that. Ever’body knows that. So, da Dragon taunts ‘im. Mocks yer team. Calls you a buncha morons. Says she can cheat all she wants. Who’s gonna find out? Yer all trash—nobody’s gonna believe ya. How d’ya feel about that, Princess?”

“I’m just so mad!”

“Okay, so after all da yellin’ ‘n’ pushin’ around, da Duck gets mad too. Now he turns against da Dragon. He’s gonna fight her now, insteada doin what they cooked up beforehand. He’s too proud t’ quit da team after all da abuse she spits out, so bein’ da biggest, he takes over. And da Dragon Lady is smilin’ da whole time. Ever see dat smile? It’s enough t’ zap yer spine outa joint.”

new-normal

Clinton’s prepares to smile – [The New York Times]

Angelica sits straight in bed. “But Uncle Loop, that means the Dragon has to play against the Duck. That doesn’t make sense. She would never plan it that way.”

“Ah, Princess, lay back ‘n’ relax.” He tucks the covers under her chin. “Doncha see? She WANTS t’ play against da Duck. She figures he’s her easiest opponent ’cause allota his team won’t play so hard for ‘im.  I mean, plenty o’ kids don’t like dis guy so much.  He’s her handpicked patsy. Has been since day one. She’s so sure she can beat ‘im, it tastes like candy. Ever’body says she can’t lose. She already watched him bust up da udder team ‘n’ now she’s ready fer da killshot. Pick yer opponent.  That’s Civics 401.”

Angelica squeezes out a tear. “So my team loses anyway? This is an awful bedtime story!” 

“Don’t cry, Princess.  Stop ‘n’ think! da Dragon’s got a buncha great big weaknesses. Mosta da kids don’t like her so much neither.  And she don’t see what’s about t’ happen ’cause she’s—whadayacallit—a nar-sisist-sisist-sisit.”

“A narcissist?”

Cute kid. “Yeah, what you said there. She’s selfish ‘n’ she’s ruthless.  She ain’t got no idea how udder people feel. She don’t like ’em.  She don’t understand ‘em. She don’t care about ‘em. All she cares about is herself.  It’s gonna bite ‘er big time. She’s got dis big master plan, but da more complex da plan, da more chances fer a mistake.  Somethin’ unexpected always happens.  Da Dragon’s set herself up fer a big fall.”

The girl just stares at him

“Doncha get it?  Same kinda thing happens in all competitions.  Like when ya play pinochle with yer folks.” 

“What’s that, Uncle Loop?”

Lonagan shakes his head.  Kren always boasted about the way his little girl played.  “Just a card game, kid.  Allota times da udder side thinks dey hold all da cards.  Then comes da big shock.”

“I don’t understand.”

 “Look Angel, every hand o’ pinochle’s got a different set o’ special cards, see?  They’s da most powerful ones ‘n’ ever’body’s gotta keep track o’ dem real careful-like.  Sometimes, da udder players don’t do that so good ‘n’ you snap down one o’ deeze big fat cards.  You just trumped da udder side!  Let’s get back to soccer.”

“What trump card does my team have, Uncle Loop?”

“Ah, you figured it out!  You got outrage, anger, drive, determination–stuff like dat!” He throws his arms out in a broad gesture.

Clamps lets out a powerful bark and Angelica strokes the animal’s massive head.  “Everybody is so angry.”

“No, take a look over there, sweetheart. Her team’s all smiles.  They’s so sure.  They just know they’s gonna win.  They’s—whadayacall—overconfident.  It’s da players on yer team is steamin’ mad.  They’s breathin’ smoke.  So what happens when people get all pumped up like that?”

She sniffs. “They fight?”

“Bingo! I seen it happen again and again in sport after sport.  They fight like wildfire!  Ever’body gives a hunert ‘n’ twenty percent.  They win da game!  A surprise victory!  A major turnover!  Somethin’ nobody expects!”

“So you mean that my team wins?”

“Yeah, Princess, you win!  Den da recess bell rings ‘n’ it’s back t’ class.   Look, ya gotta get some sleep, so listen up—lemme give ya da moral o’ da story. Sh— I mean stuff happens. Stuff nobody expects. So’s when you’se is growin’ up, learn t’ expect what nobody expects. Dat’s where ya find success.  Ya get it?”

She nods silently.

“Ya don’t look sleepy yet. Anudder story, maybe?”

She shakes her head no, and hugs Clamps tighter.

trump-in-whitehouse-ap

Dazed Trump tours the White House after Briefing – [Associated Press]

 

Lonagan closes Angelica’s door and sits on the stairs. For months he’s heard stupid quote after stupid quote from The Donald. Now the guy’s president elect. So he searches his phone for some quotes from Hillary and comes across a nasty collection that shocks him.

  • Clinton on voters: “Look, the average Democrat voter is just plain stupid. They’re easy to manipulate. That’s the easy part.” [Read it on Tumbler]
  • Clinton on voters: “… you could put half of Trump’s supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. Right? They’re racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic—you name it.” [Read it in the New York Times]
  • Clinton on Benghazi: “What difference at this point does it make?” [You saw it on television]

As Lonagan reads more of her words, the invective gets strikingly shrill and profane. Finally he pockets his phone. He refuses to think any more about the foul stench pouring out of Cleopatra’s mouth.

hil-face-1024x682

Clinton cursing – [Tumbler]

Maybe the country got lucky, maybe not. Lonagan doesn’t know such things.  He believes that every politician, without exception, is a self-serving bastard.  Maybe that’s all we can expect, but at this point, he wishes with all his heart that President Elect Nebuchadnezzar eats his bitter greens and becomes the leader this country needs so badly.

The opinions of Mr. Lonagan and his wild conspiracy theory are not endorsed by the management.  Mr. Kren has been made aware of possible turmoil planted in the mind of his young child.

Read Part 1:

“THE DRAGON LADY AND THE BIG BAD DUCK”

 

Photo credits: Associated Press, New York Times, Washington Times, Tumbler, John Jonelis

Chicago Venture Magazine is a publication of Nathaniel Press www.ChicagoVentureMagazine.com Comments and re-posts in full or in part are welcomed and encouraged if accompanied by attribution and a web link. This is not investment advice. We do not guarantee accuracy. It’s not our fault if you lose money.

.Copyright © 2016 John Jonelis – All Rights Reserved

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Filed under big money, chicago, Conflict, Entrepreneurship and Politics, investor, Jim Kren, loop lonagan, the chicago machine

LIAR

Liar THow Far Will You Go to be Loved?

by Howard Tullman

You’re ambitious, motivated, and totally committed to your company. But are you strong enough to always tell the truth?
I’m afraid we’re developing another generation gap, and this one isn’t merely cosmetic – “Can’t stand those tattoos!” – or aural –

“Can’t stand that music!” – or even economic – “Why ‘own’ anything?”

dragon tatoo

No, this one is far more critical. I can deal with the questionable choices that many young people make today because I’m relatively sure we all made similar – or much worse, but probably less permanent – choices in our youth. Yet, amazingly, we’re still here, standing tall and offering the benefit of our wisdom, such as it is.

The gap I’m talking about threatens to undermine something so basic to the conduct of business, and especially to early-stage angel investing, that until recently there was no gap at all. Until now, everyone accepted that trust and sincerity are absolutely fundamental to success.

Trust

I recently heard Alan Matthew, a long-time successful options and commodities trader, express it forcefully in a talk he gave to several hundred entrepreneurs. He said that in every deal he does, and in every transaction, “My word is my bond.” And it’s just that simple, especially in the trading pits in Chicago, where the entire ecosystem depends on trust and the ability of everyone to rely on the commitments and honesty of the other players.

But too many of today’s young entrepreneurs live in a different conceptual world, one driven by situational ethics. And it sucks.

Telling people half the story, or telling them what they want to hear instead of what they need to hear, isn’t a funding solution—it’s an invitation to a coming slaughter. And it’s usually the entrepreneur and the management team who will ultimately get killed. So it makes sense to share all the news all the time, if for no other reason than to save a lot of grief down the line.

Half Truth

The truth never hurts unless it ought to, and sometimes it’s a powerful wake-up call for all concerned. There’s never a really good or special time to decide to tell the truth. The time is all the time.

But, if you haven’t been in the position of having to make the right choice regardless of how hard or discouraging it may be, or how it may impact your financing or prospects, and if there’s no one more experienced around to guide you because you’re running full-speed ahead and you’re making it up as you go, it’s far too easy to take a quick slide down that slippery ethical slope. But once you lose someone’s confidence—once they come to believe that you don’t share and abide by their fundamental values—you will never fully regain their trust and support.

An old friend of mine used to say, by way of excusing virtually anything disgusting he managed to do, that exceptional people deserve special concessions. I’m afraid his disease may be spreading. We have an entire generation of kids who were force-fed (at least since second grade) on the notion that they’re amazing, exceptional, and unique. So it’s just a short step for them to conclude that the ordinary rules don’t apply to them, that morals are just for the little people and they’re way above that mundane conformity—and far too smart for it as well.

You're a Star

As I often kiddingly say when I’m talking about building your company’s culture and instilling critical values in your people and your business: “These are my principles. If you don’t like them, I have others.” But that’s always intended as a joke, because in the real world we don’t get to pick and choose when to honor our promises and commitments. We say what we’ll do and then we do what we said we’d do. It couldn’t be more straightforward. You don’t get to be truthful some of the time or at some later time when it’s better or more convenient. The truth doesn’t vary based on circumstances.

We aren’t always talking about intentional dishonesty or immorality; in some cases, I think it’s just a lack of experience and education combined with way too much enthusiasm. Entrepreneurs can talk themselves into anything. (I call this this syndrome: “That hooker really liked me!”) And, once they do, they want to sell it to the world. But whenever you find you’re shading the truth or forgetting some ugly facts in order to talk your team or an investor (or maybe even yourself) into something, you probably need to back off.

Liar

It’s great to be highly motivated, but it’s not even a little cool if no one trusts your motives. It takes time and hard work to build any kind of relationship, but just an instant and a hint of suspicion to destroy it. I know how hard it is to say things that no one wants to hear, but that’s part of the leader’s job. It’s not delegable and it’s not optional.

It takes a great deal of experience and a whole bunch of broken dreams and busted relationships to appreciate that to be trusted is a much greater compliment than to be loved. Entrepreneurs, without a doubt, need and want to be loved more than anything. It’s part of the sickness that drives us. But, at the end of the day, trust is the only thing that you can really take to the bank.

Howard Tullman Double Gulp T

Howard Tullman is the father of Chicago’s 1871 incubator.

Read his bio on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howard_A._Tullman

Check out his websites at http://tullman.com/

and http://tullman.blogspot.com/

Write him at 1871@Tullman

Or just type his name into your favorite search engine.

This article appeared in INC.

http://www.inc.com/author/howard-tullman

Image credits – MS Office

Chicago Venture Magazine is a publication of Nathaniel Press www.ChicagoVentureMagazine.com Comments and re-posts in full or in part are welcomed and encouraged if accompanied by attribution and a web link. This is not investment advice. We do not guarantee accuracy. It’s not our fault if you lose money.

.Copyright © 2016 John Jonelis – All Rights Reserved

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Filed under 1871, angel, angel capital, angel investor, big money, chicago, Conflict, Education, Entrepreneur, Entrepreneurship, Entrepreneurship and Politics, Howard Tullman, Innovation and Culture, investor, new companies, pitch, vc, venture capital

MAY THE FOREST BE WITH YOU

Neil Kane TUsing Whole Trees in Building Construction

Neil Kane

If there was ever a way to combine high tech and high touch as John Naisbitt stated in High Tech, High Touch, his 1999 follow-up to his 1982 bestseller Megatrends, “embracing technology that preserves our humanness”, WholeTrees Architecture & Structures of Madison, Wisconsin epitomizes it. WholeTrees is an innovative company that has hit it out of the park in terms of innovating on technology while providing a substantial impact return, all while having one of the most gorgeous and aesthetically pleasing product lines you’ll ever see.

WholeTrees uses trees as turn-key structural systems in commercial and residential building construction. Until you see the photos, however, the description doesn’t do justice to the warmth of their offering.

Building-Interior 1000

Myrick Hixon EcoPark, LaCrosse, Wisconsin

The co-founding team of Roald Gundersen AIA, an architect, and Amelia Baxter, in partnership with the Forest Products Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service, have developed a process that allows them to cost-effectively grade, engineer and manufacture the small trees removed from routine forest thinning (called small diameter round-timber), and use the timber as patented trusses, beams and joists in building construction. In doing so they turn forest waste into a sustainable and high value building material.

Round timber is an abundant and renewable resource. The timber is sustainably harvested then dried and treated to protect against shrinkage and pests. Pound for pound as strong as steel in tension, unmilled timber requires less than two percent of the energy of concrete and steel materials for processing and transportation.

IMG_1094-1000

YMCA lobby, Dallas, Texas, 2015

“We are positioned to occupy a large niche in the approximately $13 billion U.S. sustainable structural systems market,” says Amelia Baxter, president. WholeTrees is a woman-owned business with pending Woman-Owned Business Enterprise (WBE) certification.

Last week they announced a $1.8 million debt and equity financing from investors who characterize themselves as “impact investors”. Impact investors seek environmental and social returns in addition to financial returns. WholeTrees also receives on-going grant support through the USDA’s Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program.

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Neil Kane Portrait

Neil Kane writes about leadership and turning innovations into businesses.

This article first appeared in Forbes.com

and News from Heartland

Copyright © 2016 Neil Kane

Photographs: WholeTrees Architecture & Structures & Neil Kane

 

Chicago Venture Magazine is a publication of Nathaniel Press www.ChicagoVentureMagazine.com Comments and re-posts in full or in part are welcomed and encouraged if accompanied by attribution and a web link. This is not investment advice. We do not guarantee accuracy. It’s not our fault if you lose money.

.Copyright © 2016 John Jonelis – All Rights Reserved

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Filed under big money, Cleantech, Economics, Education, Entrepreneur, Entrepreneurship, Entrepreneurship and Politics, Impact Investing, Innovation, Innovation and Culture, Invention, investor, new companies, Social Entrepreneur

CLEANTECH TRUTHS DEBUNKED

Pigs TGenerally Accepted Truths of Cleantech Investing – Debunked

Laurance K. Hayward – The Venture Lab

It is generally accepted in Cleantech investing that:

(1) the companies are capital intensive,

(2) there is a sustainability premium associated with buying the companies’ products and

(3) the adoption of the companies’ technologies requires a change of behavior.

All three can slow adoption and negatively impact scalability and internal rate of return. Certainly this can be true for many Cleantech companies, but it isn’t true for many others.

There has been an evolution and broadening in the definition of Cleantech, call it 2.0. Cleantech 1.0 involved funding solar, wind, battery and biofuel technologies. Many drew parallels to biotech investing in which large sums of capital and extended timeframes preceded product viability. Then add in the need to build factories and infrastructure. The faint of heart don’t change the world.

Often these 1.0 technologies required the end user to pay more for their use, many required subsidies, or incentives to be competitive. For example, there is a generally accepted “sustainability premium” associated with receiving power by solar relative to coal or natural gas. The technologies also required a change in behavior, such as installing new infrastructure on the roof of your building. Ironically, many of today’s demand response applications require the consumer to monitor or use energy in response to new information (i.e. creating more work).

So, these three so-called truths have validity, but now let’s debunk them with some real life examples in the world of Cleantech 2.0.

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Self-Healing Polymers

Every year billions of dollars in corroded metal hit the scrap heap. Some gets recycled. Besides filling our landfills with pollutants, these metals and their coatings require enormous inputs of energy to create and recycle. (Been to a steel mill lately?)

Various coatings are added to metals to help them last longer; there have been remarkable improvements. The old rust-bucket automobile is a rare sight today. But, coatings get damaged after which corrosion ensues. What if the coating could last several times longer? It would reduce the need for chemicals used in cleaning and recoating metals and keep more items out of the scrap heap.

Today, self-healing polymers can be added to a coating in small quantities to prolong the life of the coating and underlying material. Manufacturing can be outsourced to established suppliers and the paint can be applied like any other without a major behavioral change. The sustainability premium is small relative to the performance gain.

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On-Demand Technology

When a 500-bedroom hotel wants to heat water, how do they do it? They typically keep large tanks of water hot with a boiler system. These systems are large, expensive and redundant. They keep large quantities of water hot even during times when little is being used.

Enter on-demand technology, which only heats water when it is being used and has no storage tanks. On-demand technology is now available for use in commercial and industrial environments. Interestingly enough, the system can be less capital intensive than the system it replaces. It can cost the hotel the same or less to buy and install, avoiding the sustainability premium. And, it doesn’t require a significant change in behavior as it uses the same natural gas and connects in a similar fashion. It actually can be a little easier to install due to a smaller form factor and cooler exhaust.

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Chemical Advances

Beta Glucan is used to promote animal (and human) health and as an alternative to the potential overuse of antibiotics in our food sources. The conventional method of production involves extracting beta glucan from yeast. It is costly, messy and involves harsh chemicals.

There is now a proprietary method to produce Beta Glucan from algae in sterile fermentation tanks (not too dissimilar to the ones used to brew beer). It is a cleaner and more energy efficient method of producing Beta Glucan and results in a product with greater purity and lower cost.

The sustainability comes with a discount rather than a premium. The end product is used essentially the same requiring no change for the end user. And the production tanks are inexpensive – just as it is relatively inexpensive to start a craft brewery today.

These are just three examples of technologies that contradict commonly accepted truths; there are many more.

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Cleantech 2.0

Cleantech 2.0 isn’t better—it’s just different. Many disruptive and important technologies come with aforementioned truths and our world needs the investors who support them. A Tesla automobile doesn’t exist without major capital investments and a willingness of consumers to change the way they source fuel for their cars. (The sustainability premium is dropping).

The objective of this article is to cast light on generally accepted truths that have scared away many an investor or acted like blinders covering the eyes of others. The unaccepted truth is that there are numerous options to positively change the world without having to settle for a less attractive investment profile. As Cleantech investors ourselves, we don’t necessarily want too many investors back in the game, but a few additional kindred spirits wouldn’t hurt.

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Larry Hayward 2

Larry Hayward is a Chicago entrepreneur.

This article was adapted from TheVentureLab blog

Copyright © 2015 TheVentureLab

Photos – Larry Hayward

VentureLab logo

theventurelab.blogspot.com

This article appeared in News From Heartland

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Chicago Venture Magazine is a publication of Nathaniel Press www.ChicagoVentureMagazine.com Comments and re-posts in full or in part are welcomed and encouraged if accompanied by attribution and a web link. This is not investment advice. We do not guarantee accuracy. It’s not our fault if you lose money.

.Copyright © 2016 John Jonelis – All Rights Reserved

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KILLER SHILLER

John Jonelis


Robert Shiller TAt Loop Lonagan’s urging, I’m walking his 85 pound bull terrier Clamps down the hard Chicago winter pavement. I don’t mind because it’s an opportunity to road test my two knee replacements.  That’s right; I’m the happy product of the wonders of modern orthopedic carpentry!  And I enjoy the best physical therapy known to man because I own the company!

Old Donatas Ludditis flanks my other side to make sure I don’t slip on a stray patch of ice. Despite my upbeat attitude, I hold Clamp’s heavy leather leash with some trepidation.  In my condition, I seriously doubt my ability to control such a large and volatile animal.

DSC04929e500

Clamps

I ask Loop why he insisted on this excursion.

“Hadda break you outa that place. Dem physical therapy gals is controllin’ yer whole life.  And we got business t’ discuss.  Ain’t that right, Don? ”

Old Man Ludditis slowly nods. “You listen to what he say. In old country we obey elders, not women.”

I can’t imagine anybody more elderly than Don but I object: “Everybody says my recovery is going so well.”

Don lays a hand gently across my shoulder, as if taking me into his confidence. “John, I know you invest big in this physical therapy company…but it not right.”

“Phooey! All the employees of Pavlovian PT are extremely lovely young ladies—” I catch my blunder and quickly shift gears. “I mean highly skilled physical therapists.”

Don sadly shakes his head. “John, it not look good. It seem—how you say—immoral.”

“It does plenty for my morale.”

Lonagan sighs. “Dem females got you completely bamboozled.   Yer prob’ly takin’ enough Norco so’s you don’t notice.  Brain’s like mush.  So lemme lay it out fer ya, okay? 

  • “That nutritionist feeds you fulla nothin’ but vegetables ‘n’ health food supplements. Doncha even notice what yer eatin’? Today, we’s gonna get ourselves some thick juicy steaks. How’s about that?
  • “Then there’s that Asian beauty twists ya into a pretzel twice a day ‘n’ yer too numb ‘n’ googoo eyed t’ feel any pain. C’mon, admit it—yer putty in her hands. So it ain’t yer brains behind this deal. What does that leave us with?
  • “Then that knockout Swedish masseuse gives you a hot bath ‘n’ rub down. Hoo boy, I ain’t sure I can take any more ‘o dis.

“I deeply resent these lewd insinuations.  Nothing improper is going on.”

“Resent away, John. Sheesh—I betcha never give business er economics a thought.  Prob’ly fer weeks.  Get my drift?”

He’s got me there. Economics definitely hasn’t crossed my mind at all.

Clamps lunges at a bright green Lexus sedan.  Probably targeting a tire. I haul back on the leash and quickly lose my balance.  Lonagan grabs the lead and lifts me by the collar before I tip over.  A broad smile spreads over his mug.

“But now we’s free, John boy! Take a deep breath! We can talk ‘bout anything youse guys want.  And get some real food!”

“Yah,” says Don.  “Good talk. Good food.  This is place.”

We’re at Michael Jordan’s Steak House.

“Just hook Clamp’s lead over that post.” Lonagan points toward the curb where cars whoosh past on Michigan Avenue.

“Loop, this is a rare and valuable animal. Somebody will steal him.”

“Can’t take ‘im inside. It’ll be okay.” 

We leave the dog at the curb, get ushered to comfortable red leather seats, and immediately order our steaks.

Loop leans back, takes a healthy sip of beer, and exhales in satisfaction—a clear signal he’s opening up a topic of conversation. “I saw Robert Shiller talk the other day. Big deal economist.  Know the guy?”

Robert Shiller

Robert Shiller – from Wikipedia

It takes me a moment. “Uh…financial guru? Yale, I think.  Nobel prize in econ?”

Don: “He share prize with Eugene Fama and Lars Peter Hansen. They—both of them—University Chicago boys.”

Loop slams his empty glass to the table. “Them guys never agree on nothin’. Fama gave us that crazy Perfect Market Hypothosis.”  He spins his index finger around his temple—an unmistakable and insulting gesture.

I lean back to enjoy the fireworks.

Ludditis raises his voice a notch. “Perfect Market Theory—it settled science

Loop: “Well, I guess a guy’s gotta believe in somethin’. I hate t’ contradict a good Chicago boy but that theory is a load o’ bunk.”

Don: “Big finance thinkers—they all say is true.”

Loop: “Only in universities ‘n’ now Shiller proved otherwise. Da big brokers ‘n’ traders always knew better.  It’s so stupid, it’s—” 

Loop stops. Cocks his head.  Switches to a conciliatory tone. “Okay Don—why doncha explain it to us in simple terms, so’s we understand?”

Don raises himself erect in his chair. “I try. With you, is not so easy.  I give example:  Once upon time, news come out on certain stock.  Investors, they predict it go up.  Everybody buy.  Drive up price.  Stock no longer good value.  Fall again.  Price chart show no logic or reason—what they call Random Walk.”

“Bullshit!” Loop’s thick fist pounds our heavy table and beer sloshes out of my glass.  “Sure they drive up da price.  It’s a determined strategy.  Once that happens, the trade is done, ‘n’ all da smart money is already out with fat gains leavin’ da retail crowd high ‘n’ dry.  Markets move due t’ aggression.  It ain’t some disconnected perfect market.   Real traders profit in real dollars. 

“But now that’s changing too. Da High Freaks—I mean da big brokerage houses—is tradin’ with powerful computer algorithms, in ‘n’ out in miliseconds.  Hell, they make over 70% of the volume ever’where ya look.  They pushed all da floor traders off the edge of the world.  Kaput!  Short term gets killed off by shorter term ‘n’ da universities still say it don’t exist!”

Me: “That’s why you switched to private equity?”

“Yeah, I saw it comin’ years ago.” Loop shows both palms.  “But I still wanna talk about Bob Shiller.

S&P Price Earnings, Div, Int from Irrational Exuberance Shiller

S&P Index Price vs Dividends – from Irrational Exuberance

“Ever’body thinks investors make rational decisions.  Shiller’s a completely different animal.  He takes into account all da crazy stuff goes on. He gave us Behavioral Finance.  He called da internet bubble o’ 2000 right to the month. Then he gave us da Case-Shiller Index ‘n’ called the housing bubble.” 

Loop turns his palms back down.  “Fama never predicted nothin.’   

Loop pauses—for effect I suppose—then goes on: “Shiller says, you can predict asset prices. Fer an economist, dis is big stuff!  How does he do it?  Way too much volatility caused by illogical decisions compared to future cash flow.  Turns out you can measure it.  That shakes up da whole academic world.” 

Home Prices, Irrational Exuberance Shiller

Home prices – from Irrational Exuberance

So this is this the news flash I missed while embroiled in such excellent and enjoyable physical therapy.

Don: “You not correct about Shiller study.  It predict long term only.  To quote famous economist, ‘In long run, we all dead.’”

Loop: “Yeah, Shiller’s model’s limited t’ dividend-paying stocks, so that’s as far as he can go fer now. Maybe someday he gets the resta the story.” 

Our steak is served and we all tuck in. When dinner is done, Lonagan surprises me by paying the bill.

We exit the premises to find Clamps crouched on the pavement, his short, powerful tail wagging vigorously. The dog is happily chewing on an electric green Nike sneaker.  I always thought dogs were color blind.

Loop bends down to inspect the shoe. “Just makin’ sure there ain’t no foot in it.”

READ – THROW THE BUM OUT

 READ SERIES FROM BEGINNING

Sources:

Wikipedia bio on Robert Shiller.

IRRATIONAL EXHUBERANCE – Robert Shiller

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences – Prize in Economice 2013

 

Image Credits –Irrational Exuberance—Shiller,  Bio on Wikipedia

Chicago Venture Magazine is a publication of Nathaniel Press www.ChicagoVentureMagazine.com Comments and re-posts in full or in part are welcomed and encouraged if accompanied by attribution and a web link. This is not investment advice. We do not guarantee accuracy. It’s not our fault if you lose money.

.Copyright © 2016 John Jonelis – All Rights Reserved

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Filed under angel, angel capital, angel investor, Big Corporations, big money, Characters, chicago, Chicago Ventures, Conflict, Donatas Ludditis, Entrepreneur, Entrepreneurship, Entrepreneurship and Politics, Financial Markets, loop lonagan, Nobel Prize, vc, venture capital

APPLESAUCE AND APPLE

THE FINANCIAL MINDSET OF A NEW GENERATION

Tom McBride and Ron Nief

Light Bulb

The students who began college this past fall have a forty percent chance of graduating in four years, and a seventy percent chance of graduating in six. Having grown up in the Great Recession they can rarely take money for granted. They are more interested in money than in love, unlike their parents, who may have grown up as hippie advocates of free love during the far more prosperous 1960s.

But it’s possible that the old hippies are their grandparents: yep, that much time has passed.

They expect to graduate from college in debt, but they must also worry about what sort of job they can get to pay it off. They are all too keenly aware of how easily a sophisticated algorithm can replace human beings in the performance of even high-tech tasks. They know that jobs—maybe including one that has their name on it—can be outsourced cheaper overseas. Some of them are growing up in states like Florida where governors are pressuring universities to explain the financial prospects of their various major fields. They might love philosophy but decide to major in Geriatric Studies—perhaps the United States will run out of articles on Aristotle sooner than it runs out of old people living longer and longer.

Since they were about twelve years old the stock market has run a gamut of about twelve thousand points. The most precarious roller coaster at the nearest amusement park seems tame in comparison. They wonder if they will have the guts for investment in this sort of market when they aren’t risking whiplash in their necks (unlikely with the roller coaster anyhow) but cavities in their pocketbooks. Yet at their young age it’s silly to worry about the long-range future, right?

Still, they know they are coming of age in a world where pensions are becoming as infrequent as desktop computers, and where they may have ninety-five year old great grandparents still vacuuming up Social Security and Medicare. They’ve been told that a member of the generation just behind them may live to be 140 years of age. Where will the money to sustain so many geezers come from? Well, it’s too far off to panic now.

The financial hero of their generation is not old Bill Gates but young Mark Zuckerberg, who came up with Facebook. They dream about formulating some high-tech enterprise that will make billions of dollars for them, too. But what might it be? Replacing passwords with high-tech facial identifications? Nah: it’s too late for that—the research is already underway. When they were having their baby food applesauce, Apple seemed to be a company that had seen its best days. Well, look at how that turned out, so for them fantasies of high-tech riches spring eternal.

Rather anxious about money, they are frugal. There’s only a six-in-ten chance they have a credit card. They go debit, thank you. They’d rather have a new tablet or phone than new car. Autos are more expensive and not so necessary. They know a lot more about chips than about carburetors. They tend to congregate after graduation in cities with public transport, and they are a keen ride-sharing generation.

Besides, with Skype who needs actually to go there? One thing they don’t expect if and when they do get a job: lots of face-to-face conversation. It wouldn’t surprise them to learn that they will spend most of their working careers in their apartments—and of course in cyberspace.

They may become the first generation for which there will be scant old-age welfare, and yet also the first for whom it is largely unnecessary to leave the house for anything. Graphic virtual vacations to Venice may be on their way two decades hence, and they’ll be at lot cheaper than going there.

During their lifetimes the price of a first-class stamp has risen 65%. Maybe this has something to do with decreased demand for them. Theirs is a generation that rarely “writes” letters placed into envelopes with stamps attached. Going to the P.O. is hardly a ritual for them.

In their lifetimes K-Mart and Target have always been going in opposite directions. They expect similar corporate unpredictability in a world where popular websites can change every five minutes. They do not expect to stay with one company for long.

They hear about income inequality constantly and may cynically conclude that a rising tide lifts all yachts. Yet both the libertarian Republicans, who appeal to their sense of entrepreneurship, and the progressive Democrats, who promise to close the gap between rich and middle-class, appeal to their economic instincts, however unformulated as yet.

The one thing they should not give up on is education. One study concludes that if every high school student had the skills of every college student, the former would make $28,000 more per year. A Harvard study says that having just one good teacher for only one year can increase lifetime income by $80,000. In a time of gyrating stock markets, rising inequality, and scary high-tech chaos in the job market, it is easy to become cynical about an assigned term paper on the Thirty Years’ War.

But it would be foolish not to complete it, and get a high mark for doing so.

Tom McBride and Ron Nief are co-authors of the annual Mindset List® and of two books: The Mindset Lists of American History (Wiley, 2011) and The Mindset List of the Obscure (Sourcebooks, 2014). For their Financial Mindset List for the Class of 2018, go to http://themindsetlist.com/2014/10/financial-mindset-list-class-2018/

Photo credits – MS Office

Adapted from News From Heartland – the Journal of the Heartland Angels

Chicago Venture Magazine is a publication of Nathaniel Press www.ChicagoVentureMagazine.com Comments and re-posts in full or in part are welcomed and encouraged if accompanied by attribution and a web link. This is not investment advice. We do not guarantee accuracy. It’s not our fault if you lose money.

.Copyright © 2015 John Jonelis – All Rights Reserved

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