Category Archives: Heartland Angels

CAN’T KEEP A SECRET

written by John Bueter, 

comments by John Jonelis

Wow!  Who can resist this?  Take a look-see at this invitation from John Bueter, famous fly fishing personality. 

I’ve printed the letter below along with recent local photos so you can see what’s going on over there.  This is the perfect getaway for a Chicago entrepreneur! Check it out:

The ONE, The ORIGINAL, The ONLY 

SALMON CAMP ‘18

A Tradition for 28 Years!

September 28-30

Well, kids, it’s THAT time of year again!  The excitement of the season is overwhelming, as the River comes alive with HUGE fish. Our target species is the mighty King Salmon in the wild and scenic Pere Marquette River.  This area is FLY RODS ONLY.  No spinning gear.  No snagging.  No treble hooks welded to spark plugs.

Last season’s fish weighed in heavier than normal.  This year they’re even LARGER, with documented catches off shore of 40+ pounds!  Bring your big guns, Kids!  We’ll be hosting festivities again at the Bueter Compound.

The 24 hour Campfire tradition continues, providing the backdrop for the usual hijinks, exchange of regional information (mostly lies), recounting of the day’s adventures (again, mostly lies), and permanent cementing of friendships.  Campers are encouraged to use the showers to control the fly, bear, and buzzard problems.

The spirit of mentorism and camaraderie will flourish once again.  Proven fly patterns, proven knots and rigging—all demonstrated.  Maybe some new stuff, too.  Be sure to bring your tying gear—you’ve got things to offer and learn!

We’ve manned the barbeque pit. All the usual suspects will again prepare a super-duper-up-north dinner Saturday night, and a breakfast that will revive the near-dead.

There’s always room for newbies—no matter your level of experience.  Remember the founding concept of Salmon Camp: “This is too much fun to keep to ourselves!”

Lookin’ Forward to fishin’ with y’all !!!

Your Master of Salmon Mayhem,

John Bueter

Is that a compelling invitation or what?  Wanna go?  Well, yeah!  I get to chase 40 lb salmon with a fly rod? Who wouldn’t want a thrill like that?  Let’s go early! 

I particularly like the legal jargon on their “catch and release” form:

“…Illegal substances, firearms, and spinning tackle are not welcome in Camp…Camp “crashers” will be found, drawn and quartered, and their hides nailed to the fence so as to discourage others.  This Camp will go on rain or shine—NO WHINERS.  We encourage good stewardship of our resources, and will not tolerate scofflaws.”

Never fly fished before?  Neither did the gal who caught a 40 lb Chinook last year.  Didn’t stop her.  Oops—guess I just can’t keep a secret. 

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Here’s the place:

  • Bueter’s Salmon Camp 3200 South James Road, north of Baldwin, MI 49304
  • RSVP John or Rhonda Bueter via phone, ‘e’mail, or snail mail, so we don’t run outa bbq sauce & eggs.  Office 231-745-3070, Cell  248-345-1402,  j.bueter@sbcglobal.net , Website www.cloud9baldwin.com
  • Cost for Salmon Camp ’18:   $135

Hey, that’s a bargain!

Pack this stuff:

  • Michigan all-species fishing license
  • Big Dog Fly rod (8-9-10 wt) a spare is not unwise
  • Quality Reel with super-smooth drag
  • Sink-Tip Flyline
  • 12 pound tippet, or higher
  • Lots and Lots of flies (Note: max size #4 single point hook)
  • Waders, Boots, Wading Staff
  • Hook Hone, Nippers, Pliers [Hemostats are worthless here]
  • Big Landing Net (17 inch handle max)
  • Polarized Glasses
  • Flashlight, Lantern, Headlight [Important!]
  • Rain Gear, Appropriate Clothing
  • Tent, Sleeping Gear, Personal Stuff
  • Don’t Forget yer Bubba

Read: ALIEN ABDUCTS FISH,

THROWS FISHERMAN BACK

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 Read: TOO MUCH FUN

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Photo Credits

Various photographers as posted by John Bueter on Facebook, just prior to the event.

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Chicago Venture Magazine is a publication of Nathaniel Press www.ChicagoVentureMagazine.com Comments and re-posts in full or in part are welcomed and encouraged if accompanied by attribution and a web link. This is not investment advice. We do not guarantee accuracy. Please perform your own due diligence. It’s not our fault if you lose money..Copyright © 2018 John Jonelis – All Rights Reserved
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INVESTORS LOSING PATIENCE WITH PIVOTS

by Howard Tullman

There’s no polite or easy way to say this, but winter is on its way in the venture world. It’s getting tougher and tougher for startups caught in the lukewarm limbo between ideas and invoices to get their early backers to up their bets especially when it’s not clear that they’ve found a viable business model and/or a way to stop the bleeding sooner rather than later. Too many pivots with too little to show for the dollars down the drain and pretty soon no one wants to hear your, “someday soon,” story or your next grand plan.

dice

And if you’re not breaking even, no bank will look twice at your business or your balance sheet. This change isn’t restricted to the unicorpses in the Valley; it’s going on in every village where waves of wishful thinkers are starting to wonder what hit them.

My sense is that the smart investor conversations taking place today aren’t very often about the company going big for the gold or about the current investors doubling down so some startup can shoot for the stars. These increasingly cranky chats are less about excitement and enthusiasm and much more about ennui and possible exits. Because the two things that some early investors and every VC understands are sunk costs and opportunity costs.

While the entrepreneur is sweating survival, the investors are trying to decide whether their incremental dollars would be better spent on a new deal elsewhere. These are the days when easy money gets hard.

Those great gluten free sugar cookies (from the hip new bakery down the block that just shut its doors) are tasting more like ashes in their mouths and they’re asking themselves how they ended up sitting in a room with no doors feeling like some sucker after the circus left town.

The unhappy folks who are still sitting at the table (more likely associates now than the partners who got the ball rolling) aren’t talking about how much more money they can put to work; they’re trying to figure out how little additional cash they can put up to preserve what’s left of their position.

cash

Everyone is telling you that they’re really not inclined to do much of anything at all if you can’t drag some new money from outside players to the table to help set the price and get the next round started. Flat valuations in times like this are the new “up” rounds and there are down rounds galore.

This is a Plan B world at best and the down and dirty talk on the limo ride to LaGuardia almost always includes whether to also shoot the CEO while they’re in the process of trying to clean things up and save a little face. So if you’re the one on the bubble, forget Plan B, and get started on what I call Plan C. You need to get a head start on talking about the tough choices and critical changes that need to be made.

It’s about figuring out what immediate actions you can take that will make a difference before they turn the lights out. You can have results or excuses, not both. Focus on facts rather than futures if you want to be there when things turn around.

And forget about playing the blame game – no one cares.

Plan C is all about choices: contraction, consolidation, combination, conversion, and concessions. The last C is closing the doors and that’s not a sight that anyone wants to see. So find out which of the C’s makes the most sense for your startup.

contraction

Contraction

Just suck it up and admit it. You can’t be all things to all people and no one ever has been. Focus on what sets you apart and what represents the best prospect of a long term sustainable competitive advantage for your business and forget everything else. Don’t apologize, don’t try to explain, just buckle down and get the job done. The recent launch of UberEats in Chicago (as an “instant” meal delivery service) and its almost immediate abandonment of that commitment is a good example of knowing when to hold ’em and when to fold ’em. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that it’s pretty stupid to open the umpteenth home meal delivery service in Grub Hub’s hometown.

Businesses that scale too soon and which are a mile wide and an inch deep are doomed for many reasons, but the clearest and most telling is that they can’t cost-effectively engage with, support, or connect to their customers because the customers are simply too few and too far between. It’s critical to nail it before you scale it and, if you’re grossly overextended, your business is going nowhere.

consolidation

Consolidation

Shut down the stupid San Francisco office sooner rather than later. You had no business being there in the first place and the fact that you doing no business there ought to speak for itself. San Francisco may be the most overheated and least representative market in America. Everyone there drinks the KoolAid for about 10 minutes and then moves on. Building a new business there is as slippery and unstable as trying to nail Jell-O to a tree.

New York should be next on the list. NYC isn’t a city – it’s 5 or 6 different marketplaces all mashed together – with a million people just waiting to eat your lunch. Your business expansion needs to be driven by actual demand, feasibility and real opportunities – not by some investor’s fantasies and/or fables about life in the Big Apple foisted on the public by the media and by people barely making it in Brooklyn.

combination

Combination

Take a careful look around and see who else in your space (or adjacent to it) is doing things right and see what the prospects of some kind of combination may be especially if your market itself continues to be more cluttered and competitive. We hear constantly that the shared/surplus economy or the “Now” economy continues to grow fueled by millions of millennials holding multiple jobs. But tracking the gig economy isn’t quite that easy. While the number of multiple job holders has in fact grown dramatically, the percentage of the number of people so employed as compared to the total number employed has been flat or down over the last decade.

We had a great example of a timely and smart combination recently in Chicago where Shiftgig and BookedOut got together and decided that there were all kinds of economies and opportunities in a merger as well as the sheer relief in knowing that they could stop trying to beat each other’s brains out in the market. They are both players in the increasingly crowded space which the Commerce Department is trying to define as “digital matching firms.

Shiftgig was bigger and better established, but BookedOut had a lot of momentum and was gaining important traction in the experiential marketing sector. Now instead of spending time building duplicative back ends and other redundant systems and offerings, they can bring a single story to the market in a cleaner, more efficient and less costly way. This is exactly the kind of story that all of their investors wanted to hear.

It’s not easy in any market to attract the technical talent, the motivated sales people, and the operations folks that you need to grow quickly and a well-planned and thoughtfully executed combination can demonstrably accelerate the process. You need to be careful to make sure that the companies’ visions are aligned and that the problems they’re addressing are similar and that the cultures of the businesses (and the leaders in particular) aren’t in conflict.

These things aren’t made or broken in the board room when the papers are signed, they rise or fail in the implementation and the execution. But in today’s world, it’s often a lot better and smarter han trying to go it alone.

conversion

Conversion

Sell some of your stuff to someone else. You may be great at lead generation and lousy at closing the sale once those prospects show up at your door. Or you may be a great sales organization that sucks at fulfillment and customer service. When you look at your skill sets and your customers, users, clients, etc. through a different lens—looking at them as potential assets to be converted or sold to some other enterprise, it helps you see more clearly exactly what kind of business you’re building. It may make the most sense to look at your company as a conduit or an intermediary and not as a one-stop shop trying to meet all the needs of the marketplace. You’ve got to play to your strengths and build on those if you’re planning to stick around.

concessions

Concessions

Maybe your pricing made sense in some early fever dream where you were the best and only player in the space, but now there are fast followers and clones everywhere you look and their offerings (at least on the surface) look a lot like yours. Once your customers start talking about price, you’re on a very slippery slope.

 

Conclusion

Here’s the bottom line. In the long run, you can’t save your way to success and it’s no fun to fire your friends or postpone your pet projects. But if you don’t survive during the difficult times, you and your business won’t be around to savor any success down the road. Do what needs to get done and do it now.

 

Big Gulp from Howard Tullman

About the Author

Howard Tullman is the father of 1871 and Matter—the huge Chicago incubators.

This article appeared previously in News From Heartland

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References

Shiftgig

BookedOut .

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Chicago Venture Magazine is a publication of Nathaniel Press www.ChicagoVentureMagazine.com Comments and re-posts in full or in part are welcomed and encouraged if accompanied by attribution and a web link. This is not investment advice. We do not guarantee accuracy. Please perform your own due diligence. It’s not our fault if you lose money.
.Copyright © 2017 John Jonelis – All Rights Reserved
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Filed under 1871, angel, angel capital, angel investor, big money, Chicago Startup, Chicago Ventures, Economics, Entrepreneur, Entrepreneurship, Heartland Angels, Innovation, Invention, investor, Startup, startup company, vc, Venture, venture capital

THE BIG LITTLE TRAP

by Scott M. Anderson

An investor, Sally, recently heard two pitches. The first was from A-Dot-Co, which will produce polka-dot jellybeans using a new patented process. The second was from BetterBean, will produce purple jellybeans using a trade secret method which improves existing manufacturing processes.

Having spent several years owning a candy company, Sally was interested in both opportunities.

Jellybean T

Sally knows that the jellybean market is large and well established. With a few regional exceptions, she knows the annual market growth has been 3% for many years.

sales projection MS Office

Accordingly, she was a bit surprised to see strong growth projections in the presentations from both A-Dot-Co and BetterBean. More diligence would be required.

Sally asked both companies to submit detailed materials in support of the projections they presented. She was particularly focused on the factors responsible for revenue growth. Since the market is large and established, Sally knew that growth for a new entrant must come from either expansion of the overall market or from switching behavior (customers switching from established providers to new providers). She was hopeful that the detailed support material for each revenue projection, would reflect management’s understanding of these market dynamics.

 

A-Dot-Co

A-Dot-Co

Sally received the following support detail from A-Dot-Co:

A-Dot-Co Revenue

She knew from prior experience that the total candy market was very large and she was glad to see the jelly bean sub-market in excess of $2 billion. There would be plenty of upside for A-Dot-Co. She was also glad to see that in year 5, the founder did not expect to exceed 1.0% of the market. Any larger share percentage would require major resources and additional funding rounds.

However, before investing, Sally still needed more information on the detail behind the market share projections. She scheduled a follow-up call.

On the call, A-Dot-Co was very enthusiastic. It went like this:

Sally: “Thank you for your revenue detail. I have some follow up questions. How do you expect to land nearly $2 million in revenue in the first 2 years?”

Founder: “A-Dot-Co is well positioned to achieve our revenue goals. We have a seasoned team who formed many candy company startups in the past.”

Sally: “That’s great. But how do you intend to land $600K of sales in year 1?”

Founder: “My team has deep knowledge about the jelly bean market. We only need a mere 0.03% of the market to land the projected $600K! Surely there are enough polka-dot jelly bean eaters out there to achieve this projection!”

A-Dot-Co’s founder fell into The Big Little Trap.

trap MS Office

 

The Trap

The Big Little Trap occurs when a founder believes his future projections are achievable because the market is so big and the market share percentage is so little. Specifically, that the sales goal will be very easy to accomplish because the market goal is such a small percentage, such as 0.03% with A-Dot-Co. (“It’s so small that anyone can reach it…as easy as falling off a log!”) In fact, the Trap victim might further say that the percentage is so tiny, that it may take only a few customers to reach it, and “…clearly the market has more than just a few customers!”

The response to an enthusiastic Trap victim: “I’m glad you’re excited. Name the customers!”

 

BetterBean

BetterBean

BetterBean submitted the following detail to Sally:

BetterBean Revenue

 

As before, Sally was glad to see confirmation of the jelly bean market. (They must have used the same market study). But she was even happier to see customer detail behind the revenue projection.

target market MS Office

The detail reveals several important items:

  1. BetterBean knows his target customers and may already have relationships established with them.
  2. Knowing BetterBean’s target customers should lead to a more efficient operation by helping the company prioritize the company’s limited time with its important customers over less strategic prospects.
  3. BetterBean has applied the 80/20 rule—at least 80% of the revenue is derived from specific, identified customers. The remaining revenue will come from other customers, currently unknown. Forecasting is an inexact science and to communicate over-precision in the detail implies the founder may be taking his projections too seriously. BetterBean has not been overly precise.
  4. When—not if—BetterBean misses its projections, the detail will provide insight as to why the projections were missed. The “why” is more important for fixing future revenue projections.
  5. BetterBean is more transparent than A-Dot-Co. Specifically, BetterBean’s founder has shared his target customer list, perhaps with the hope that Sally may have contacts to be leveraged at those customer accounts. Conversely, A-Dot-Co has shared no customer detail, suggesting that its founder may not know who his customers will be. This is concerning if true.

 

Decision Time

Sally rejected the opportunity with A-Dot-Co. It fell into The Big Little Trap—and didn’t even realize it. The lack of transparency did not generate confidence in the company’s management team.

Sally proceeded with further diligence on BetterBean.

The Big Little Trap grabs victims all the time. Like Sally, an investor should consider the market size, but only in the context of the startup’s upside potential. As she observed, there’s, “…plenty of upside for A-Dot-Co.” However, market share is not the justification of year-to-year or month-to-month revenue goals. Market share is best seen as a byproduct of sales efforts.

The jellybean example is fictitious, but the Trap is very real. Watch for The Big Little Trap at your next pitch session. See if the founder falls into it!

 

About the Author

Scott M. Anderson is a principal at Anderson Financial Services, LLC and has been performing cash projections for decades as an investment banker, a workout specialist, and recently, as an advisor to investors and startups. He can be reached at scott@andersonfsllc.com

Graphics from MS Office

 

This article appeared in NEWS FROM HEARTLAND

NEWS FROM HEARTLAND – The Journal of the Heartland Angels is published tri-annually for its members. We encourage reproduction and quotation of articles, if done with with attribution. Copyright © 2017 Heartland Angels. John Jonelis, Editor – John@HeartlandAngels.com

FOR MEMBERSHIP IN THE HEARTLAND ANGELS, contact Ron Kirschner Ron@HeartlandAngels.com

FOR FUNDING, apply online. Go to www.HeartlandAngels.com

NEWSLETTER SITE – View past and present editions at News.HeartlandAngels.com

Chicago Venture Magazine is a publication of Nathaniel Press www.ChicagoVentureMagazine.com Comments and re-posts in full or in part are welcomed and encouraged if accompanied by attribution and a web link. This is not investment advice. We do not guarantee accuracy. Please perform your own due diligence. It’s not our fault if you lose money.
.Copyright © 2017 John Jonelis – All Rights Reserved
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Filed under angel, angel capital, angel investor, big money, Chicago Startup, Chicago Ventures, Entrepreneur, Entrepreneurship, Heartland Angels, Innovation, Invention, investor, new companies, pitch, Startup, startup company, vc, Venture, venture capital

THE TRUMP EFFECT

WHAT THE NEW ADMINISTRATION MIGHT MEAN FOR HEALTH CARE

By Erik Clausen

Several months have passed since the U.S. Presidential election, and…we’re still here, folks. After years of political rhetoric and theatrics, and a few months of uncertainty, we are starting to gain some clarity around exactly what the new administration and its policies might mean for the life science industry and, by extension, marketers within it.

Most importantly and as a wise man wrote before the election, “There is no need for panic.”

the scream EdvardMunch

Edvard Munch – The Scream

Now that the rhetoric has momentarily quieted, we need to balance Trump’s desire to make dramatic policy changes with the realities of the legislative process and with the expectations of a public that benefits from life science and healthcare innovation. Widespread policy changes take time to implement and often require strong Congressional support, even with a Republican-controlled House and Senate. The recent defeat of the health care bill is a case in point.

In other words, as we look at the major policy changes that are likely to affect life science marketing in the years ahead, we need to recognize that there will be time to adjust marketing strategies and tactics accordingly. This may even mean building multiple marketing plans to address different contingencies.

fear MS Office

 

Possible repatriation of US dollars

U.S. pharmaceutical companies have substantial funds tied up in accounts overseas due to punitive tax laws. The administration has proposed, as part of his economic stimulus plan, to dramatically reduce this tax rate and encourage those dollars to come back to the U.S.

In theory, by lowering the tax burden on these businesses, the economy will see an uptick as businesses are encouraged to invest. These companies benefitting from tax relief would in turn reinvest those dollars domestically in the form of new deals, R&D, acquisition and job creation.

Since pharmaceutical and instrumentation companies typically grow based on acquisition, we could see a resurgence in life science M&A and dramatic increases in the value of emerging biotech, diagnostic and tools companies. No doubt, these topics are top of mind at industry gatherings like the January 2017 J.P. Morgan Healthcare conference.

dollars MS Office

If this move does have the immediate and positive effect on the life science sector as promised, it would give corporate brand managers and marketers much to do to position their companies correctly to take full advantage of the M&A environment.

Of course, this assumes that the financial boon to corporations is reinvested or used for acquisition and not simply distributed to shareholders. Increased deal-flow will lead to increased budgets. This will undoubtedly bring increased noise in a busy economy. Therefore, we should focus on building long-term brand equity in an expanding GDP and economy.

 

Corporate tax rate reduction

The administration will also propose in the President’s Budget Bill, a much lower corporate tax rate. This plan would significantly reduce the cost of capital and reduce the marginal tax rate on labor.

By most analyses, these incentives could increase the U.S. economy’s size in the long run, boost wages, and result in more full-time equivalent jobs—including in the life science sector. The question remains, what the estimated reduction in federal revenue will mean for federal funding of medical and scientific research. Such grants often precipitate early discovery that soon become commercialized.

 

tax tax tax MS Office

The size of the proposed tax breaks for corporations are, simply put, Huge.” But if the administration can actually get it through Congress, it has the potential to give corporations exponential buying power, increase cash flow, build up inventory, and re-invest in technology. Dismissing any possibility of a bubble and or the rich simply getting richer, these tax breaks should create jobs and boost all sectors of the economy, including life science and healthcare.

 

Reforming the FDA

In his 100-day plan, Trump specifically cited, “…cutting the red tape at the FDA…” as among his highest priorities. In the plan, he stated that, “…there are over 4,000 drugs awaiting approval, and we especially want to speed the approval of life-saving medications.” We can only assume that such reforms would also have a direct effect on approval and clearances for new medical devices and diagnostic tests, as well.

An accelerated approval process at the FDA could potentially have a positive effect—at least in the short-term—on the life science sector. With therapeutic candidates and devices moving more rapidly through review than anticipated, biotech, pharmaceutical and device companies in mid to late stage clinical phases could see increased valuations of companies with early approvals.

fda MS Office

Additionally, this could encourage earlier stage companies to get more ambitious about moving candidates to the clinic and could make would-be acquirers more bullish.

In the long term, if that accelerated review brings products to market too quickly, it could threaten public health, cause another costly set of reforms, and damage the brands of those companies.

 

What does the new agenda mean for marketers?

While it will take some time to feel the effects on any proposed legislation or policy changes, the administration will tie everything back to growing the economy: no small challenge. A lot has to come together with or without a cooperative Congress. The President will have to build a consensus.

marketing MS Office

For now, as marketers we need to do what we’ve always done—assess market opportunities, pinpoint our target audiences, develop smart strategies to reach and influence their behavior, and measure outcomes. Certainly, researching the impact of policy decisions is part of that research, but acting too quickly on proposed policy changes only fuels uncertainty.

And, if there is one truth in the market, it doesn’t like uncertainty.

screaming robot MS Office

In the end, even if the President is able to pass a fraction of what he’s proposing, it should lead to economic prosperity and marketing opportunity in our industry.

Now, if we could just turn off his Twitter account, we might make social media great again, as well.

 

chempetitive group logo

About the Author

Erik Clausen is part of the Chempetitive Group, a Chicago based marketing initiative for pharmaceutical, chemical, biotechnology, diagnostics, and medical devices.

This article was previously posted online

Graphics: THE SCREAM courtesy www.EdvardMunch.org

All other graphics from MS Office.

 

Chicago Venture Magazine is a publication of Nathaniel Press www.ChicagoVentureMagazine.com Comments and re-posts in full or in part are welcomed and encouraged if accompanied by attribution and a web link. This is not investment advice. We do not guarantee accuracy. Please perform your own due diligence. It’s not our fault if you lose money.
.Copyright © 2017 John Jonelis – All Rights Reserved
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CHICAGO—THE BEST INCUBATOR IN AMERICA?

by Denny O’Malley

Recently, Inc.com published an article about the best cities for early-stage companies. The premise: Chicago is the surprise winner.

Why would that be? San Francisco and New York are both beautiful, thriving cities that dramatically represent the diversity of American ideas. San Fran—younger, more venture-oriented, with beautiful natural vistas. New York—the classic, bustling private and public equity concrete jungle.

What do they have in common? It costs a kidney to pay rent for a closet. Continue reading

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IN YOUR FACE RISK

by John Jonelis

“Oh, you’re an angel investor! Isn’t that risky?” I hear such drivel all the time. Are people afraid of outsized returns? Or perhaps they don’t understand risk, don’t know how to measure it, or how to take control of it. Yet all that is quite easily done and it’s a real charge to play the game using a Monte Carlo simulation (MC). I’ll show what’s likely to happen if you follow three simple rules. Then I’ll break one rule—just a little bit—and we’ll use the simulator to see what happens.

fear-color

Rules of the Game

Rule #1 – Diversification and the Law of Large Numbers—This is the only free ride in the investment world. Invest in as many dissimilar companies as possible.

The portfolio technique known as the Efficient Frontier suggests you indulge in alternative investments to the tune of 10% of your overall portfolio to maximize return and minimize risk—that’s right, both! Angel investment is definitely in the alternative camp, so restrict your fun to 10%. No more! It’s true—angels are like anybody else. They also own stocks and bonds, futures and options, currency spreads and real estate, antique cars and art collections.

Rule #2 – Identical Minimum Sum—Nobody knows whether a company will succeed or fail. Nobody. Even the best, most experienced, wisest, most savvy investors can’t tell. So out of your alternative portfolio, invest the identical minimum sum in each and every deal—no more, no less—no exceptions! Make it as small as you can. 2% is a good number to shoot for. Ideally, with profits taken along the way, you’ll eventually own 50 to 100 companies!

Rule #3 – Join an Angel Group—Contrary to public opinion, most investors aren’t multi-millionaires. An angel group allows you to invest small sums in concert with others in the group, and coincidentally, it makes it possible to obey Rules #1 and #2.

I also assume that a personal research staff isn’t in your budget. A good angel group solves that problem by splitting the workload among its members according to their particular expertise. A strong group will accelerate your learning curve. The trust and camaraderie you build with other members makes angel investing a real joy. My own experience as a member of Heartland Angels has broadened my horizons and given me so much more than I could ever contribute.

It’s not a rule, but read the book ANGEL INVESTING by David Rose. You’ll be glad you did.

dice

Beware

If you don’t like to help companies grow from raw idea to industry leader; if you aren’t willing to participate in the fascinating and often perplexing details of a new business venture; if you can’t stand people; if you’re afraid—then invest in a mutual fund or put your money in gold coins and count them every day, just for something to do.

 

Picture Your Risk

I’m visually oriented. To paint the picture of risk, I use a Monte Carlo engine. MC is a sophisticated and arcane statistical tool that any child can use. If you’re a spreadsheet whiz, you can set it up yourself. I downloaded a program called Equity Monaco that makes it easy to enter investment outcomes, and analyze results.

NOTE: If you find yourself gazing at a bunch of confusing readouts with a vacant stare, read my paper, ALTERNATE HISTORIES. It’s written in plain language. It’s short. You’ll be an expert in no time.

angel

How Angels Make Money

Angel investing is long term—3-10 years. But like any investment class, you’ll cash out of one deal and put that money in another. It’s a continuing cycle. It’s also a homerun strategy. Can a homerun strategy be a winning strategy? Let’s run the numbers and see.

First, we need a data set of ordinary, average, run-of-the-mill trade results. Turns out, the Kauffman Foundation keeps statistics and publishes them.

Here’s the bottom line, according to Kauffman, 38.1% of startups grow and get acquired by a larger company, at which point all the investors throw a party! 11% become lifestyle businesses. These may provide a nice living for the employees but it takes the investors a really long time to cash out. 50.9% of companies go belly-up. Of those, 0.9% just disappear!

startups

Actual Angel Returns

Let’s keep this simple. From the investor’s perspective, all the returns from Kauffman’s wealth of past data boil down to five distinct outcomes. I express these as multiples of cash invested. (“10x” is a return of 10 times your investment.) Then I list the probability of each outcome.

return-vs-probability

Return as a multiple of investment vs. probability

Kauffman Foundation

 

Using these numbers, and applying our rules, it’s simple to build a simulated portfolio that represents likely outcomes.

Let’s assume that 10% of your portfolio amounts to $50K. Your angel group’s minimum investment is 10K. That means you need to plunk down 10% of your stake per deal, rather than the recommended 2%. You’re undercapitalized! Your Identical Minimum Sum, is high.

What does that mean to you? You’ll participate in fewer trades than some rich slob. All other things being equal, your results will be less predictable. The rich get richer, etc. etc. But you’re young and aggressive. Let’s say you go ahead anyway.

Now create a list of outcomes, based on Kauffman’s stats.

how-deals-shake-out

Notice that you follow all three rules. You invest exactly the same amount each time. Using an angel group, you invest the smallest amount you can get away with, and you participate in as many attractive deals as you can.

 

The Face of Risk

We’re ready to run our simulations. Feed those numbers into your MC engine and let the computer do the work. (I apologize for omitting legends from the charts, but the numbers in my program are too tiny to read. Hey, these are actual screenshots from my software package. So permit me to clue you in:

  • The X axis is about 100 deals.
  • The Y axis runs from zero to almost $2,500,000.
  • All equity lines start at $50K—your alternative portfolio.

std-10-long

10 possible equity curves

Here’s an MC output of 10 runs from the set we just built. Each line is a distinct equity curve that represents your portfolio. All are possible. Notice that two of them go negative quickly and never recover. But the rest do quite well. This isn’t enough data to draw any valid conclusions. Let’s run more simulations, using the same data set.

std-30-long

30 possible equity curves

Here we have 30 equity curves. The projections are getting clearer. Let’s run a few more, using exactly the same data set.

std-100-long

100 possible equity curves

Ah! Here we go—100 outcomes. The variation is nice and tight. Kurtosis is evident in the plot—in other words, the most likely results cluster around the mean. Looks like a good experiment to me. Let’s use this one.

 

ANALYSIS

Analyzing these plots is amazingly intuitive. For this experiment, the equity lines all start at $50K—your portfolio. A few outcomes go negative, but most look quite promising. The luckiest investor walks home with $2,450,000. MC plots don’t necessarily follow a standard distribution, but the mean looks to be about $1,450,000. Let’s focus on that number.

If we achieve the mean, we’re looking at an average return of 28 times investment. Does 28x get your attention? It gets mine! It even raises suspicions about possible survivorship bias in Kauffman’s numbers. But these are the best statistics we have so we’ll go with them.

How much is 28x as an annual percent return? That depends on turnover of deal flow. The shorter the hold time, the larger the IRR. 3 years is better than 10.

By the way, you may be wondering which curve is yours. There’s no answer to that question. But since your portfolio is so small, you’re more likely to find yourself on the fringe. An investor that’s filthy rich and participates in many more deals, enjoys a more predictable outcome and probably lands close to the mean.

 

BREAKING THE RULES

Let’s find out what happens if we break just one rule. And who doesn’t do that? So you invest $100K in a really juicy deal. It’s the best prospect you’ve ever seen and you figure it’ll make you rich. This thing can’t miss! Hey, it’s just one investment—how much difference can it make? You have just violated the Identical Minimum Sum rule. I know. I made this mistake once.

We add it to our data set and run the simulation. For this, we increase your portfolio size and retain all the same trades from the last run. This is what the hotshots call sensitivity analysis.

undis-100-long

100 possible equity curves – breaking one rule

Whoa! Look at what that one lapse in discipline does to your projections! The mean is now flat—zero times return! Half the outcomes are negative. No, I don’t’ want to play in this sandbox.

Successful investing is primarily adherence to a solid set of rules. That’s called discipline. The goal of discipline is to keep the probabilities in your favor. Discipline defines success.

That doesn’t mean that a successful angel can get by without a good skillset. You need to exercise brilliant judgement. You must perform your due diligence. Knowledge and experience are huge. Always keep the human side in mind. And you need to follow-up. Watch your companies closely as they pivot and grow. I leave you with this thought:

david-rose-quote

Also read – ALTERNATE HISTORIES

 

John Jonelis is a writer, investor, fisherman, author of the novel,

THE GAMEMAKER’S FATHER, publisher of Chicago Venture Magazine, and editor of News From Heartland.

The term IDENTICAL MINIMUM SUM is from the author.

Thanks to David Rose and his book ANGEL INVESTING.

Statistics from the Kauffman Foundation.

MC plots from Equity Monaco by TickQuest.

Graphic courtesy MS Office.

DISCLAIMER – Do your own due diligence. It’s not my fault if you lose money.

Chicago Venture Magazine is a publication of Nathaniel Press www.ChicagoVentureMagazine.com Comments and re-posts in full or in part are welcomed and encouraged if accompanied by attribution and a web link. This is not investment advice. We do not guarantee accuracy. It’s not our fault if you lose money.

.Copyright © 2016 John Jonelis – All Rights Reserved

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